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Importantly, ethereum is also escaping the bearish sentiment affecting the stock market. Risk assets like stocks are struggling in response to persistently high inflation in the US and the worrying news that price rises have become embedded in the broader economy. For example, the wage-price spiral is now in effect, and inflation slowed only slightly to 6.4% in January of 2023 from 6.5% in December, less than market forecasts of 6.2%.
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The macro backdrop for ethereum is bearish. We analyse various on-chain/flow metrics for ethereum, which are neutral. Overall, we are neutral to bearish on ETH in the short term. Therefore, if you have a two-to-four-week horizon, now may not be a good time to buy ethereum.
Furthermore, the correlation of ethereum to NASDAQ started to increase sharply just as US interest rates started to rise. This is a common occurrence throughout history. When the liquidity tap turns off, usually by central banks raising rates, the correlation between diverse assets shoots up. This time appears no different.
One exercise is to see how low prices could get were the NASDAQ to suffer a 2000-style crash. After all, the ethereum and NASDAQ correlation was around 80% until recently. So where the NASDAQ goes, ethereum follows.
Back in 2000, the NASDAQ suffered a 78% drawdown. Currently, the NASDAQ is in a 30% drawdown. A repeat of the 2000-style drawdown would put the NASDAQ at 3,500. So where would crypto be if NASDAQ were trading at this level? We estimate a regression between ethereum/bitcoin returns and NASDAQ returns from 2020 onwards. Based on this relationship, we find:
Should the currently restrictive environment of rising interest rates and recession risks subside, we could see ethereum return to its all-time high of $4,379 or even beyond. However, we caution that this scenario is unlikely in the short term and, like with any investment, it is impossible to say with certainty how high ethereum will go.
On the flip side, overregulation could stifle innovation by increasing censorship. The ongoing regulatory backdrop will be key to monitor. Lastly, on ethereum specifically, there is the much-anticipated merge. We previously covered its potential implications. The punchline was that it should be bullish for ethereum.
All of our crypto indices have taken a beating this week, led by our Privacy index (-21% WoW), while our Smart Contract, Metaverse and DeFi indices are down between 18% and 19% each. Our Bitcoin index is down the least (-13% WoW, Charts 1 and 2). Rebasing each index to the start of this year reveals that our Metaverse index is up the most (+60% YTD) and our Privacy index is up the least (+15% YTD). Additionally, rebasing the index the start of this year also reveals that each index has been falling since peaking (Metaverse: +127% YTD, Smart Contract: +81% YTD, DeFi: +58% YTD, Privacy: +58% YTD, Bitcoin: +50% YTD) on February 21.
We think ethereum is a worthwhile long-term investment. However, we also note that ethereum is extremely volatile. That means it experiences large price movements over short periods. Before you invest in ETH, you must understand the risks involved: you could lose all or a large portion of your investment. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
However, to invest in cryptocurrency, we must first understand it. Crypto tokens are unlike any traditional asset class. And they are all different. Just because you understand bitcoin, does not mean you know how ethereum works. Our video on bitcoin and ethereum fundamentals can help you understand how ethereum prices fluctuate and how to assess trends in important ethereum metrics. And the video below explains other cryptocurrencies that might put ethereum at risk.
Your exposure to ethereum needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns. Drawdowns provide good entry levels for exposure, but we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.
One way to diversify your portfolio is with stablecoins, although these have also been very high-risk following the Terra debacle. Our recent analysis has explored how safe is tether and which stablecoins could fall next. We advise only a very small allocation to crypto and prefer diversification with more traditional asset classes.
For trading ethereum over the next two to four weeks, we are neutral to bearish. That means we expect stable to falling prices. For 2022-3 in general, we think recession risks pose a risk to ETH and so now might not be the best time to buy ethereum if you have a medium-term outlook. We think ethereum is a good long-term investment for the next one to three years and are bullish overall. That means we expect prices to rise in the long term.
Ethereum was the lowest in October 2016, when its price was $0.41. Since then, Ethereum has experienced several major bull runs. The first was in 2017/8 when it peaked at $1,400. It subsequently dropped to around $300-400 until the start of 2021. From January that year, bullish sentiment took the coin to over $4,000. It was not until the closing moments of 2021 that ETH breached this threshold, continuing its rise to $4,780 in November 2021. Since then, ETH price has been volatile and generally gone downwards. It is currently around $1,500.
As with all investments, the value of ethereum can rise as well as fall. While it is unlikely that ethereum will suffer a complete loss of value, investors must be prepared to suffer drawdowns of between 50% and 80%. We recommend small allocations and diversification of your portfolio. Never invest what you cannot afford to lose.
Traditional wisdom says you should buy low and sell high. But whether you should sell ethereum depends on your investment horizon, risk appetite and financial goals. Although some website speculate that certain days of the week are better or worse then others for selling ethereum, we believe that any decision to buy or sell should be based on analysis of crypto fundamentals.
We think a small allocation to ETH makes sense in the long term. However, we caution against investing in ethereum too heavily as cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and often subject to large downturns.
Ethereum and bitcoin have historically been touted as a hedge for inflation. When inflation expectations rise, you would want the relationship between the cryptocurrency and inflation expectations to be at least positive. This, historically, has held. However, since February, the relationship has broken down. Inflation expectations remained anchored while ETH prices have fallen. A more hawkish Federal Reserve could weigh on ETH going forward.
Ethereum has been running on two different blockchains since April 2022. One operates using proof-of-work, like bitcoin. The other is a test chain what uses proof-of-stake. The merge is an upcoming event where these two blockchains will combine, ending proof-of-work. It is expected to happen in Q3/Q4 2022, and it will eliminate the energy-intensive mining required in proof-of-work. Guest author Nikhil Shamapant explains more about the ethereum merge and what it could mean for ETH price in 2023 in his recent article.
An airdrop is a marketing event where, to promote a new digital currency, an issuer may send coins or tokens to wallet addresses of members of the blockchain community. This may be for free or in return for a small service.
The concept of Ethereum as a platform was first proposed in a 2013 white paper by Vitalik Buterin, a 17-year-old computer programmer. Following a period of online crowdfunding in 2014, the platform was developed and launched in July 2015. The platform kicked off with 72 million pre-mined ether coins, sold at a fixed price during the first two weeks.
Need some help getting going with your first transaction? We have step-by-step instructions that explain how to set up the application. Explore our website or reach out to us today for more information on our wallet, ATMs, or OTC ethereum services. Our customer support team is available via email, text, or phone.
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You've read the news. Exchanges have lost the password to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. They have accidentally deleted at least $15 million worth of ETH. They collect troves of sensitive passport scans only for them to end up on the dark web and sold to identity thieves.
Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain with smart contract functionality. Ether (Abbreviation: ETH;[a] sign: Ξ) is the native cryptocurrency of the platform. Among cryptocurrencies, ether is second only to bitcoin in market capitalization.[3][4] It is open-source software.
Ethereum was conceived in 2013 by programmer Vitalik Buterin.[5] Additional founders of Ethereum included Gavin Wood, Charles Hoskinson, Anthony Di Iorio and Joseph Lubin.[6] In 2014, development work began and was crowdfunded, and the network went live on 30 July 2015.[7] Ethereum allows anyone to deploy permanent and immutable decentralized applications onto it, with which users can interact.[8] Decentralized finance (DeFi) applications provide a broad array of financial services without the need for typical financial intermediaries like brokerages, exchanges, or banks, such as allowing cryptocurrency users to borrow against their holdings or lend them out for interest.[9][10] Ethereum also allows users to create and exchange NFTs, which are unique tokens representing ownership of an associated asset or privilege, as recognized by any number of institutions. Additionally, many other cryptocurrencies utilize the ERC-20 token standard on top of the Ethereum blockchain and have utilized the platform for initial coin offerings. 041b061a72